Consumer spending powers the US economy. A K-shaped economy will further test this dynamic in 2026.

Economic Overview - The US economy is characterized by a K-shaped recovery, with a widening divide between economic haves and have-nots, particularly affecting middle-income consumers due to a softening labor market and inflation fears [1][2]. Consumer Sentiment - As of November, the unemployment rate reached a four-year high of 4.6%, with nearly two-thirds of respondents in a consumer sentiment survey expecting unemployment to rise in the coming year [2]. - Consumer sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024 levels, primarily driven by financial concerns [2]. Consumer Spending Trends - Spending among consumers in the top third of the income distribution increased by 4% year-over-year in November, marking the fastest growth in four years, while spending from the lowest third rose by less than 1% [3][4]. - The divergence in consumer spending reflects the K-shaped economic dynamic, with higher-income households benefiting from stock market gains [4]. Retail Sector Performance - Retailers focusing on value and low prices, such as Walmart and TJX, reported strong performance and outperformed the S&P 500 [6]. - Economic uncertainty has led to an influx of higher-income shoppers at dollar store chains, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards frugality [8]. Consumer Behavior Insights - Analysts note that consumers, particularly in the middle and lower income brackets, are under significant pressure and are prioritizing basic and essential needs [7]. - Walmart described US consumers as "choiceful," reflecting a trend towards more selective spending [8].