中金宏观：消费与AI投资推升美国经济增长

Core Viewpoint - The US GDP for Q3 2025 increased at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and AI-related equipment investment, while traditional sectors like construction and real estate continued to underperform, indicating a growing economic disparity [1][8]. Economic Growth - The actual GDP for Q3 2025 was 24.0 trillion USD, up from 23.8 trillion USD in Q2 2025, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing the expected 3.3% and the previous quarter's 3.8% [1][8]. - Private consumption expenditure grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in Q3, up from 2.5% in Q2, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth [1][8]. Consumer Spending - Strong consumer spending is likely linked to the wealth effect from rising asset prices, particularly in the stock market driven by AI themes, which has boosted consumer purchasing power [2][9]. - However, actual disposable income growth was zero in Q3, the lowest since Q2 2022, indicating that consumer spending is not primarily driven by wage income [2][9]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.0% in Q3, down from 4.0% in Q2, with equipment investment rising by 5.4%, particularly in computer equipment, which surged by approximately 44% [3][10]. - Traditional sectors such as construction and real estate saw declines of 6.3% and 5.1%, respectively, indicating that AI-related investments are the main driver of fixed asset investment growth [3][10]. Trade Balance - Exports exceeded expectations with an annualized growth of 8.8% in Q3, driven by a 64% increase in aircraft and engine exports, contributing nearly 30% to total export growth [4][11]. - Imports fell for two consecutive quarters, decreasing by 4.7% in Q3, suggesting a slowdown in import activity following earlier "import rushes" due to tariff factors [4][11]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience of GDP data may suppress calls for short-term interest rate cuts, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in January 2026, with potential cuts not anticipated until March [4][11].