Core Insights - Shanghai is the only first-tier city in China where housing prices have increased, reflecting a unique market structure amid complex conditions and steady policy regulation [1][2] New Housing Market - The new housing market in Shanghai has shown a stable performance with a slight upward price trend, supported by an optimized supply structure and improved product quality [2][6] - In 2025, the monthly transaction volume of new residential properties fluctuated between 2,257 and 5,468 units, with March recording the peak at 5,468 units [2] - The price index for new residential properties maintained a month-on-month increase throughout the year, with a high of 0.7% in March and May, and a slight increase of 0.1% in November [2][4] Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai experienced a continuous price decline throughout 2025, with transaction volumes stabilizing between 18,000 and 23,000 units after reaching a peak of 29,345 units in March [4][6] - The price index for second-hand residential properties began to decline in February, with a notable drop of 0.9% in July and a slight recovery in October and November [4][6] - Low-priced "old and small" properties have become the main choice for buyers, accounting for approximately 60% of recent transactions, while mid to high-end second-hand properties face significant pressure [6][7] Market Structure - The Shanghai real estate market has developed a "dumbbell" structure, characterized by a clear division between the high-end new housing market and the low-end second-hand market [5][7] - High-end residential properties are in high demand, with the top-selling property, Shanghai Yihua Courtyard, achieving sales of 22.03 billion yuan and an average price of 62.23 million yuan per unit [5] - The demand for low-priced second-hand properties is driven by young buyers seeking affordable housing options, despite the lower living quality associated with these properties [6][7] Future Outlook - The "dumbbell" market structure is expected to persist, with ongoing competition in the new housing market and stable demand for low-priced properties in the second-hand market [8] - The continuous increase in high-end supply may lead to intensified competition among developers, necessitating improvements in product quality and service [8] - The overall stability of the Shanghai real estate market reflects the effectiveness of policy regulation and the underlying economic fundamentals, suggesting a potential for healthier and more sustainable development in the future [8]
地产经纬丨韧性中求进 上海楼市“哑铃型”市场结构愈发清晰
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-24 11:38