冲破4500美元/盎司！金价创历史新高，地缘风险和美联储降息预期成背后“推手”

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new heights, with international gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce, marking a historical high [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 23 and 24, international gold prices broke through $4500 per ounce, with the highest spot price reported at $4525.83 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching $4555.1 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold T+D also saw a peak at 1016.72 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, which has been a significant driver for the increase [4]. - The U.S. has recently seized oil tankers near Venezuela, contributing to market uncertainty and driving gold prices higher as investors seek safe-haven assets [4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside central bank gold purchases and a declining U.S. dollar index, are key factors supporting gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, and inflation data has been below expectations, reinforcing signals for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar index has been on a downward trend, falling from around 100 to approximately 98, with a cumulative decline of over 10% this year, which supports gold prices [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The overall environment for precious metals remains favorable due to ongoing expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in the U.S. and other major economies, alongside a sustained trend of central bank gold purchases [6]. - The market's focus has shifted from tariff negotiations to interest rate expectations, with the potential for increased inflation if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [6][7].