Dragonfly's Rob Hadick on 2026 crypto outlook, bitcoin price trends and future of prediction markets

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has faced challenges in the past year, but a broader perspective shows that Bitcoin has increased by approximately 26% since the day before the 2024 election, while the NASDAQ has risen by about 28% [2]. - Over a two-year period, Bitcoin's value has doubled, compared to a 50% increase in the NASDAQ [2]. - The long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, remains positive, with expectations of continued momentum and adoption of tokenized assets [6]. Market Trends - The adoption of stablecoins is expected to grow significantly, with McKenzie reporting that 3% of all cross-border payments currently occur in stablecoins, up from virtually 0% a year ago, with a projected tenfold increase [6]. - Prediction markets are anticipated to grow tenfold as well, indicating a substantial market opportunity [8]. - Poly Market's trading volume has surged from $50 million per month in early 2024 to an expected $4 billion, with only about 35% of that volume related to sports betting [11]. Blockchain Ecosystem - Both Ethereum and Solana are seen as vital players in the blockchain space, with Ethereum currently hosting most stablecoins and economic activity, while Solana is recognized for its optimized transaction flow and lower costs [14][15]. - The belief is that multiple blockchains will coexist, as no single blockchain can scale sufficiently to handle all economic activity [16]. - New blockchain technologies, such as Monad, are emerging, aiming to compete with existing platforms like Solana [18]. Investment Focus - The investment strategy encompasses a wide range of sectors within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, including stablecoins, DeFi, and various tokenized assets [4]. - The company is not ideologically bound to any specific cryptocurrency but focuses on innovation and future financial market developments [5]. - There is a recognition of the potential for consolidation within the prediction market space, as it may merge with sports betting platforms [9].