六大行同业存单使用率回落，负债压力缓解能否持续

Core Insights - The pressure on the liabilities of major state-owned banks in China has shown signs of easing by the end of 2025, particularly in the context of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) usage [1][4] - The overall balance of interbank CDs for the six major state-owned banks reached 6.85 trillion yuan, with a utilization rate of 64.3%, significantly lower than the previous year's levels and down over 10 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1][3] - The improvement in the liability side is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in fund flows, a more relaxed policy environment, and optimization of banks' liability structures [1][5] Summary by Sections Interbank CDs Overview - Interbank CDs are issued by deposit-taking financial institutions and primarily target institutional investors, not individual investors [2] - As of December 24, 2025, 342 banks disclosed a total interbank CD issuance capacity of approximately 33 trillion yuan, a 15.5% increase from 2024, although the number of banks has decreased by 41 [2] - The total issuance of interbank CDs in 2025 reached 21,680, with a cumulative scale of 33.49 trillion yuan, led by city commercial banks [2] Historical Context and Trends - The rapid increase in interbank CD utilization rates in 2024 serves as a reference for understanding the marginal improvement in the liability side in 2025 [3] - By the end of 2024, the overall utilization rate for state-owned banks reached 79.14%, up from 67.57% in 2023, while the utilization rate for state-owned banks in 2025 has significantly decreased [3] - Among the six major banks, only Agricultural Bank had a utilization rate exceeding 80%, while Postal Savings Bank had the lowest at 12.61% [3] Factors Influencing Liability Pressure - The easing of liability pressure is characterized by significant differentiation among banks, with Agricultural Bank showing the highest demand for interbank CDs [5] - Changes in residents' asset allocation behavior and a shift in funds towards capital markets have contributed to the improvement in the liability structure [6] - The People's Bank of China has increased medium- and long-term liquidity support, which has also alleviated pressure on banks' liabilities [6] Future Outlook - The sustainability of the easing liability pressure will depend on several variables, including capital market performance, central bank policy adjustments, and changes in the interest rate environment [7] - If the capital market remains active, non-bank deposits may continue to grow, supporting banks' liabilities; however, increased market volatility could reverse this trend [7] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a reasonably ample liquidity environment is expected to continue, but policy operations may become more flexible as economic recovery progresses [7][8]