The uptrend is still very much alive and well, says Fairlead's Katie Stockton
Youtube·2025-12-24 13:29

Market Overview - The market has shown a loss of momentum since mid-October, leading to increased volatility and a different character compared to earlier stages following the April low [2] - Despite the current volatility, the uptrend remains intact, and confirmation of new highs is essential for a breakout to be considered valid [4][5] Technical Analysis - A breakout for the S&P would require solid closes above the final resistance level of 6911, which would act as a short-term positive catalyst [3] - Current projections suggest that if a breakout occurs, the market could reach around 7100, but the risk-reward ratio is not favorable, with support approximately 3% below [6][7] Bond Market Insights - There are expectations for a potential decline in yields, possibly below 4%, due to a weak labor market, although recent GDP data has added basis points to yields [8][9] - The 10-year Treasury yields have been rangebound, and a neutral bias is assumed until a decisive move occurs [10][11] Cryptocurrency Analysis - Bitcoin shows a more constructive near-term bias due to oversold conditions, but monthly charts indicate deterioration in momentum, suggesting a potential trading range or down cycle [12][13] - Institutional involvement has not yet led to reduced volatility in Bitcoin, and significant drawdowns remain possible, although not imminent [15][16]