Gold still has room to run in 2026, even after a record-setting year

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to reach all-time highs in 2026, driven by structural factors rather than just reactive market conditions [1][6]. Price Movement - The spot gold price surpassed $4,500 per troy ounce for the first time, currently trading around $4,490 per ounce, marking a more than 70% increase in 2025, the best year since 1979 [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce next year, with potential upside towards $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [3]. Market Drivers - Key drivers for gold's strength include elevated debt levels, policy uncertainty, fragile global alliances, and a declining dominance of the US dollar [2][6]. - The expectation of lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and uneven growth could further support gold prices, as gold typically performs well when real yields fall [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investor positioning in gold is relatively balanced compared to previous peaks, indicating that the market is not overcrowded [4]. - Analysts suggest that gold is likely to find support during pullbacks, attracting renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers [5]. Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will climb to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, while other analysts expect gold to continue hitting record highs in 2026 [5][4].