短期阵痛换长期利好 现房销售将重塑楼市供需平衡

Core Viewpoint - The policy shift towards promoting "existing home sales" aims to fundamentally mitigate delivery risks in the real estate market, transitioning from a pre-sale model to a system where buyers can see and purchase homes that are already completed [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting emphasized the implementation of existing home sales, marking a significant upgrade in policy positioning compared to the previous year's meeting [1]. - The shift from a pre-sale model, which has been in place for over 30 years, to existing home sales reflects a response to the collective anxiety regarding delivery uncertainties among buyers [2]. Group 2: Impact on Developers - Existing home sales require developers to invest all construction funds upfront, extending the cash flow cycle from months to two to three years, thereby raising the industry entry threshold [2]. - This policy change has led to a noticeable shift in developers' operational logic, with a greater focus on cash flow management and product quality, moving away from financing and marketing as the primary competitive factors [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition to existing home sales is expected to result in "short-term pain, long-term benefits," with a potential short-term decline in new home supply but a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in the long run [2]. - The introduction of existing home sales is anticipated to reduce speculative behavior in the market, as buyers can make more informed decisions by viewing properties firsthand [3]. Group 4: Financial Innovations - Recommendations have been made for the development of financial tools such as "existing home development loans" to alleviate long-term funding pressures on real estate companies [3]. - Adjustments to land transfer methods and payment conditions are suggested to ease financial burdens on developers, such as extending payment deadlines for land transfer fees [3].