沈建光：四季度消费 “冷暖不均”，政策还需加力

Core Viewpoint - The recent trends in China's consumer market indicate a decline in overall consumption growth, with a notable differentiation in product categories and a resilient service consumption sector. The urban consumption has significantly slowed down, necessitating policy adjustments to stimulate recovery and address structural disparities [1][9]. Group 1: Product Consumption Trends - The retail sales growth of goods has weakened, with November's year-on-year growth dropping to 1%, the lowest since August 2023. This decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and diminishing policy impacts [2]. - Categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and automobiles, have seen significant declines in retail sales, with decreases of 19.4% and 8.3% respectively in November. This reflects the exhaustion of consumer demand in these sectors [2]. - Non-trade-in categories have shown more stable performance, with retail growth for essential goods like food and beverages remaining robust, and some discretionary categories like cosmetics and clothing experiencing growth rates of 7.9% and 4.9% respectively [3]. Group 2: Service Consumption Insights - Service retail sales have demonstrated resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% from January to November, surpassing the 4.1% growth in goods retail. This indicates an increasing share of service consumption in overall spending [4]. - The growth in service consumption is supported by the development of new consumption scenarios, such as cultural and sports activities, which have contributed to a 19.5% increase in national box office revenue [4]. - The potential for service consumption remains significant, as it currently lags behind goods consumption in GDP contribution, suggesting opportunities for growth in sectors like tourism, elderly care, and childcare [5]. Group 3: Urban Consumption Dynamics - Urban retail growth has notably slowed, with November figures showing a year-on-year increase of only 1%, compared to 2.8% in rural areas. This shift is partly due to the diminishing effects of the trade-in policy [7]. - The central economic work conference has emphasized the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to stabilize urban consumption, particularly in first-tier cities where growth has been weaker compared to lower-tier cities [7]. - Recommendations include accelerating the removal of consumption restrictions and promoting new consumption forms, such as yacht and automotive modifications, to enhance consumer confidence and spending [8][9].