ZACKS·2025-12-24 16:11Core Insights - Cipher Mining (CIFR) and IREN Limited (IREN) are transitioning from pure Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing (HPC) and AI infrastructure, reducing reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations [1][2] Cipher Mining (CIFR) - CIFR has evolved into a significant AI and HPC infrastructure developer, leveraging its power-first approach and Texas operations as competitive advantages [3] - Key advantages include low costs, large-scale power control, and a proven ability to construct industrial data centers. Notable agreements include a 10-year AI hosting deal with Fluidstack and a 15-year lease with Amazon Web Services (AWS), totaling approximately $8.5 billion in future lease payments [4][8] - CIFR's development pipeline includes 3.2 GW of projects from 2025 to 2029, supporting long-term AI growth [4] - The company gained majority control (95%) of a 1-gigawatt HPC project in West Texas, with a Direct Connect Agreement with American Electric Power (AEP) targeted for energization in 2028 [5] - CIFR's balance sheet was strengthened through a $1.3 billion convertible note offering, allowing for HPC buildouts without immediate equity dilution [5] - While these developments support long-term growth, they introduce near-term challenges from increased expenses and transition costs, leading to downward revisions in profit estimates for 2026 [6] IREN Limited (IREN) - IREN has also expanded into AI and HPC infrastructure, supported by substantial grid-connected power assets in the U.S. and Canada [9] - The company benefits from vertical integration, managing its own data centers and GPU stack, which enhances cost control and mitigates third-party risks [10] - IREN secured a $9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft, expected to generate $1.94 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) at approximately 85% EBITDA margins [10] - Plans to scale its GPU fleet from 23,000 to 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026, targeting $3.4 billion in AI cloud ARR while utilizing only 16% of its 3 GW secured power [11] - However, IREN faces high capital expenditure requirements for rapid AI cloud expansion, with the Microsoft deal alone necessitating $5.8 billion in GPU investments [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IREN's fiscal 2026 losses has deteriorated, reflecting a decline in expectations [13] Comparative Performance - Over the past six months, CIFR has outperformed IREN, with a 313.2% increase compared to IREN's 254.4% rise, attributed to CIFR's more predictable revenue profile and lower hardware exposure [16] - CIFR's valuation is supported by strong revenue visibility from long-term contracts, trading at a price/book ratio of 7.99X, while IREN trades at 4.14X [19] Conclusion - In the competitive landscape of AI infrastructure, Cipher Mining is positioned favorably due to its power-first HPC model, long-term contracts, and lower hardware risk, offering clearer earnings visibility and superior risk-adjusted returns compared to IREN's capital-intensive GPU strategy [22]