A股跨年行情转向“新旧共舞”新格局

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a critical "cross-year-spring" layout window, characterized by a new pattern of "new and old co-dance" with multiple leading lines, driven by a combination of policy and funding factors [1] Group 1: Positive Factors for Market Movement - The initiation of the cross-year market is supported by a resonance of policy and funding. The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a focus on stable progress and quality improvement in economic work for the coming year, which is expected to enhance corporate profits and create favorable conditions for a shift towards profit-driven market dynamics [2] - There are signs of "incremental" funding entering the market, with institutional investors making significant purchases through broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF, bringing hundreds of billions in stable incremental funds. Additionally, a trend of activating broader funding and expectations for long-term capital entering the market is anticipated to improve market liquidity [2] Group 2: Market Characteristics and Dynamics - The current market is expected to exhibit a more complex and balanced "new and old co-dance" pattern, with institutions predicting that from December to January, market styles will tend to be balanced, favoring large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles. These sectors are expected to stabilize indices and set the tone for the market [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches and leading up to the National People's Congress, the market is likely to enter a "volatile window" driven by liquidity and risk appetite, with small-cap and technology growth sectors expected to become active again. This rotation is characterized by the collaborative efforts of traditional cyclical sectors benefiting from economic quality improvement and domestic demand recovery, alongside technology growth sectors supported by industrial policy and technological breakthroughs [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The consensus among institutions is to "grasp structural opportunities amidst consensus and rotation," with balanced allocation becoming a key strategy to navigate the rotating market. Long-term investment opportunities are seen to expand beyond a single focus on technology growth, spreading across three main directions: economic recovery, global resonance, and domestic demand recovery [4] - Some leading institutions believe that the "technology structural bull" is currently in a high volatility phase, with the 2026 market expected to have a split performance, favoring cyclical sectors in the first half and technology and advanced manufacturing in the second half. Recommendations include focusing on technology themes while rotating into sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies to mitigate volatility risks associated with a single theme [4]