新“黄金十年” 北方大市机会来了

Core Viewpoint - The cruise economy is recognized as a new economic growth point with a long industrial chain and strong driving force, especially in the context of expanding domestic demand. The global cruise market is expected to recover robustly, ushering in a "golden decade" for China's cruise industry [1][5]. Industry Overview - The cruise industry is described as a "golden industry floating on golden waterways," with economic value extending beyond shipbuilding and operation. It drives high-end manufacturing, transportation, tourism, trade, financial services, and cultural creativity through a "port-ship-shore" linkage, demonstrating significant multiplier effects [1][2]. - The industry has a high driving ratio, with every 1 yuan of revenue from the cruise industry generating 10 to 14 yuan in economic benefits for related sectors [2]. Historical Context - China's cruise economy officially began in 2006, experiencing a "golden decade" from 2008 to 2017, during which the number of cruise tourists grew at an annual rate of 40% to 50%. By 2017, the number of cruise passengers reached 2.43 million, an 11-fold increase from 2010 [3]. - However, after 2017, the growth rate of China's cruise market significantly slowed, with a drop in the number of cruise ships and passengers due to issues like limited routes and lack of experienced service providers [4]. Current Trends - As of 2025, a new wave of growth is anticipated for China's cruise economy, marking the beginning of a second "golden decade." The industry is currently in a recovery phase, with signs of a turning point emerging [5][6]. - Data indicates that the passenger volume in China's cruise market has already surpassed 85% of the 2019 levels, with a year-on-year increase of 27.8% in the first 11 months of the current year [6]. Competitive Landscape - The Ministry of Transport has introduced measures to address industry challenges, such as the inability of certain cruise ships to dock due to inadequate facilities and the lack of diverse cruise products. These measures aim to enhance supply, improve services, and stimulate new demand [7]. - Various provinces and cities are competing to develop their cruise economies, viewing it as a key opportunity to reshape urban industrial structures and enhance international competitiveness [8][9]. Regional Development - Shandong province, particularly Qingdao, is actively pursuing the development of the cruise economy, with plans to create a comprehensive industry cluster worth hundreds of billions. Qingdao aims to become a leading cruise industry center in the Bohai Rim and Northeast Asia [9][10]. - Qingdao's development plan targets receiving over 200 cruise ships and more than 1 million inbound and outbound tourists by 2035, which would position it among the top cities in China's cruise economy [9][10]. Economic Impact - The cruise economy integrates various sectors, including shipbuilding, transportation, port services, tourism, and finance. It is evolving towards composite business models like "cruise + culture and tourism," which require deeper institutional innovations to meet new development demands [11][12]. - Qingdao is leveraging its unique industrial foundation to accelerate the development of its cruise economy, aiming to become a versatile player in the industry [12][13]. Future Prospects - Qingdao's initiatives include enhancing its port facilities and developing high-end tourism projects, which are expected to significantly boost its cruise economy. The city aims to achieve a marine production value of 551.32 billion yuan by 2024, contributing substantially to its overall GDP [13][14].