Biggest market surprises in 2025, Santa Claus rally hopes, why markets could continue to rally

Group 1 - Nvidia's stock is only up 40% this year despite being a dominant player in AI chips, suggesting it should have performed better [2] - Amazon's stock has only increased by 5% this year, underperforming against the S&P 500's 16% gain, attributed to investor skepticism about its AI capabilities [2][3] - Lululemon's stock has dropped 45% this year, and the company is facing leadership changes due to poor performance and activist investor involvement [4] - Consumer spending has surprisingly remained strong, growing at a 3.5% pace in Q3, despite tariff-related price increases [5] - The S&P 500 is not at record highs, which is unexpected given the current economic conditions [5] Group 2 - The Santa Claus rally is seen as a potential indicator of market optimism heading into the new year, with historical trends suggesting a positive outcome [7][10] - The first five days of January are viewed as a barometer for market performance for the entire month, with a strong correlation to annual returns [10][11] - Small caps are trading at a 35% discount to their 20-year average relative PE to the S&P 500, indicating potential for growth in 2026 [19][20] - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2026, which could benefit small caps due to their higher debt levels [20][25] - There are concerns about elevated market valuations, with the S&P 500's PE ratio at two standard deviations above the mean, indicating potential market bubble conditions [26][27] Group 3 - The resilience of US earnings growth has been surprising, with expectations of continued growth supporting high market valuations [28][29] - Historical patterns indicate that market corrections typically take longer to recover, but this year has shown a quicker rebound [30] - Investment strategies suggest letting winners ride in a strong market, which could enhance returns [33]