全球贸易面临四大挑战 2026年或再迎艰难一年

Group 1 - The global trade system is entering a challenging year after a transformative one, with stability and growth prospects facing more tests [2][14] - Despite the U.S. imposing tariff barriers, global goods trade remains relatively robust, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase in global container shipping volume in October [2][14] - However, underlying issues are evident, as U.S. inbound volumes have decreased by 8%, while imports from Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India have shown strong growth [2][14] Group 2 - The global container supply chain is adapting and reconfiguring trade patterns, with predictions of a significant shift in 2025 compared to 2024, which saw a 15.2% increase in U.S. container imports [4][16] - Experts anticipate increased trade turbulence in the coming year, with a focus on the re-evaluation of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) [4][16] Group 3 - The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are set to review the USMCA, which includes a new clause that can only be updated after six years, indicating a shift into "new territory" for negotiations [5][16] - Over 1,500 feedback submissions were received during the public consultation period, with many stakeholders supporting the agreement but also calling for improvements, which may come at the expense of one party's interests [6][17] Group 4 - Experts predict two major shocks for container shipping in the coming year, one being the reactivation of the Red Sea shipping route, which could lead to severe port congestion in Europe [7][18] - The second shock may arise from demand-side pressures if the U.S. economy accelerates in 2026, potentially overwhelming the shipping industry with inventory replenishment [7][19] Group 5 - One of the key achievements for the White House in 2025 is reaching trade agreements with several major economies, where concessions were made in exchange for lower tariff rates [8][20] - Recent developments highlight the risks of these agreements, as Indonesia has resisted U.S. trade demands, fearing restrictions on its independence [9][21] Group 6 - Ongoing negotiations with the EU and India regarding trade agreements are expected to continue into the new year, with threats of U.S. retaliation if excessive regulatory measures are imposed on American tech companies [10][22] Group 7 - A significant unknown in trade for 2026 is the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could have major implications for the economy and government finances [11][23] - If the ruling is unfavorable for Trump, it remains uncertain whether the government will need to refund previously collected tariffs, with a 75% probability of a loss indicated in betting markets [12][23]