日元加息未改汇率颓势 市场紧盯全球资本流动

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to unexpected market reactions, with the yen depreciating and the stock market rising, reflecting structural challenges in Japan's monetary policy normalization process [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike announcement on December 19, the yen depreciated against the dollar, nearing its yearly low, while the Nikkei 225 index rose over 2.7% by December 24 [2]. - Investors are trading based on expectations rather than traditional models, with the market having already priced in the rate hike, leading to profit-taking [2]. - The dovish signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda contributed to the yen's decline, providing upward momentum for the export-heavy Japanese stock market [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's 10-year government bond yield surged past 2%, reaching its highest level since 2006, indicating rising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2]. - The ongoing inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeding the 2% target for 44 consecutive months, necessitates the Bank of Japan's rate normalization despite potential economic recovery setbacks [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Challenges - The Bank of Japan faces a complex situation balancing anti-inflation measures with economic stability, amid a "tight monetary, loose fiscal" policy contradiction [4][5]. - The recent supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen exacerbates concerns over Japan's long-term fiscal sustainability, leading to potential market trust issues [4][6]. Group 4: Global Asset Allocation Impact - Japan's shift in monetary policy may significantly affect global asset allocation, as the yen's role as a low-cost funding currency diminishes [7]. - A reversal in yen carry trades could force investors to liquidate overseas assets to repay yen-denominated loans, tightening liquidity [7][8]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation are becoming a dominant market force, challenging traditional capital flow logic based on interest rate differentials [8].