Why Services Are Central to Mastercard's Evolving Growth Story

Core Insights - Mastercard's service business is becoming a crucial part of its long-term growth strategy, enhancing its core payments franchise and improving resilience and profitability [1][4] - The service segment, known as Value-Added Services (VAS), is driving sustainable revenue growth and competitive differentiation [1][8] Revenue Diversification - Mastercard generates revenues primarily from transaction volumes, but its service business diversifies these revenues, making them less dependent on consumer spending and economic cycles [2] - Services such as data analytics, cybersecurity, and fraud prevention focus on long-term client relationships, reducing earnings volatility and providing a steadier growth profile [2] Growth in Value-Added Services - Demand for Mastercard's service offerings surged during COVID-19, with revenues from Value-Added Services growing 17.7% in 2023, 16.8% in 2024, and 22% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025 [3][8] - The growth is driven by increased demand for consumer acquisition, engagement, and business insights [3] Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships - Mastercard's acquisitions and partnerships, including those with Recorded Future, Dynamic Yield, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, are expanding its service business and enhancing cybersecurity capabilities [4] - These strategic moves support continued growth in the service segment as the payments business gains momentum [4] Competitive Landscape - Visa and American Express are also leveraging their service businesses to drive growth beyond transaction-based revenues, enhancing customer retention and diversifying revenue streams [5][6] - American Express, in particular, utilizes its closed-loop network to boost spending and customer loyalty through its service offerings [6] Stock Performance - Mastercard's shares have gained 9.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry [7] Valuation Metrics - Mastercard trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 30.36, which is above the industry average of 21.07, indicating a relatively expensive valuation [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard's fourth-quarter 2025 EPS and first-quarter 2026 EPS has not changed in the last 30 days, with slight downward adjustments for 2025 and 2026 earnings [10][11]