Consumers clearly seeking discounts and promotions, says Neuberger Berman's San Marco

Core Insights - The retail sector is experiencing a rebound, particularly among older mall names that were previously considered struggling, driven by a more resilient consumer than expected [1][2] - Certain retailers, such as Dollar Tree and TJX, are well-positioned to benefit from current market conditions and consumer behavior [4][6] Retail Winners - Older mall retailers are showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [1][2] - Dollar Tree is noted for overcoming challenges related to tariffs and management transitions, with expectations for improved performance in 2026 [4][5] - TJX is highlighted as a strong performer, appealing to high-income consumers seeking value, and is expected to thrive in the current economic environment [6] Retail Losers - Some retailers are still struggling and may be left behind in the current market, particularly those that have not adapted to changing consumer preferences [3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shopping more intentionally and closer to their needs, with a focus on promotions and discounts [8] - The current economic climate is characterized by a "K-shaped" recovery, where different consumer segments are experiencing varying levels of financial stability [6][8] Future Outlook - Optimism for 2026 is based on potential tax reforms that could increase consumer spending capacity, particularly in discretionary goods [9][10] - Home Depot and Costco are identified as potential comeback stocks, benefiting from pent-up demand and favorable market conditions [12][13]