前官员称日本央行应谨慎对待加息

Core Viewpoint - A former member of the Bank of Japan's policy committee suggests that the central bank should adopt a cautious approach to interest rate hikes while the government strives to boost the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - The government should fully utilize fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to stimulate demand and achieve a "high-pressure" economy [1][3]. - The former committee member supports responsible and proactive fiscal policies from the government, anticipating that labor shortages in a high-pressure economic environment will improve worker compensation and productivity [3][8]. Group 2: Interest Rate and Inflation Insights - Rapid actions on interest rate hikes could lead to excessive tightening, with current inflation partly driven by supply-side factors, such as rising rice prices [3][7]. - The Bank of Japan recently raised borrowing costs to the highest level in 30 years, believing the economy is nearing its price stability target, which has caused some investor unease [3][8]. Group 3: Budgeting and Fiscal Strategy - The government is finalizing the initial budget for the new fiscal year starting in April, having announced the largest economic stimulus package since the pandemic [8]. - It is recommended that necessary expenditures be concentrated in the initial budget, while additional budgets should be reduced to restore their limited role [4][8]. Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate Discussion - The former committee member advises the Bank of Japan to maintain some distance in discussions about the neutral interest rate, which is difficult to define due to its dependence on natural rates and inflation expectations [5][8]. - Over-focusing on the neutral interest rate could complicate decision-making for the Bank of Japan [5].