基金经理投资笔记 | 2026年资产配置的基准线

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic strategies for asset allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and the need for wealth management upgrades. The proposed strategy focuses on "risk premium decline, profit increase, and structural differentiation" as a framework for investment decisions [1][2]. Growth Factors - The expected GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected at 4.9% for real GDP and 5.2% for nominal GDP, indicating a moderate recovery characterized by a "stable real and rising nominal" trend. This recovery is supported by proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing, which bolster infrastructure and foster new productive capacities [3]. - Corporate profitability is anticipated to improve, with industrial profit margins expected to rise to 5.8%-6.0% and return on equity (ROE) for listed companies increasing to 9.5%-10%. This improvement is driven by supply-side reforms and a recovery in pricing power [4][5]. Inflation Factors - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to a central value of 0.5% in 2026, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to turn positive in the third quarter, with an annual average of -0.4%. This reflects a weak recovery in consumption and a gradual alleviation of production pressures [6]. Liquidity Factors - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain low, with a "low first, high later" trend. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is likely to be reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with growth stabilization policies while avoiding excessive pressure on bank profitability [7]. - The expected range for the USD/CNY exchange rate in 2026 is between 6.80 and 7.15, indicating a "first rise, then stabilize" pattern influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved foreign exchange supply-demand dynamics [7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - Equity assets are likely to enter a "profit-driven" golden period, with a focus on new productive capacities and cyclical goods benefiting from PPI recovery expectations. This shift represents a significant change in risk asset pricing [10]. - The bond market is expected to exhibit "low volatility and narrow fluctuations," with a balanced approach to liquidity and yield. The reduction in LPR is favorable for high-rated credit bonds [10]. - Indirect investment tools such as wealth management products and funds are expected to benefit from the "residential savings migration," serving as a transitional option for conservative investors [10]. - The attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets is expected to increase, suggesting a moderate allocation to RMB-denominated equities and bonds to mitigate single currency risks [11].