世界贸易组织报告指出——全球价值链经历再全球化重塑

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization's report indicates a transformation in global value chains towards "re-globalization," driven by technological advancements, green transitions, and geopolitical changes [1][2] Group 1: Trade Structure and Dynamics - "De-globalization" is not occurring; instead, "re-globalization" is forming, with global value chain trade still accounting for approximately 46% of global trade, down from a peak of 48% in 2022 but still at a high level [2] - Future trade volumes are not expected to decline systematically, but trade structures, routes, and rules will continue to evolve, leading to a growth model characterized by restructuring rather than rapid expansion [2] - The importance of services and digital trade is expected to rise significantly, with digitalization reshaping value creation methods and increasing the share of services in global value chains [2] Group 2: Policy and Governance Influences - Trade is increasingly driven by policy rather than solely by costs, with industrial policies, green regulations, and security reviews deeply influencing trade flows [2] - The report highlights over 180 "targeted trade agreements" focused on digital trade, critical minerals, and green sectors, indicating a shift from comprehensive agreements to problem-oriented cooperation in trade governance [2] Group 3: Environmental and Technological Shifts - Carbon emissions responsibilities are now integrated into value chain decisions, with green policies directly affecting corporate site selection, trade structures, and intermediate goods division [3] - The green industry is undergoing restructuring, with value chains moving towards "green, circular, and traceable" models, emphasizing recycling, reuse, and local processing [3] - Digital technology is lowering the barriers for participation in global value chains, enabling small and medium-sized enterprises to integrate more deeply into cross-border value chains [3]