【环时深度】2025，欧洲负重前行的一年

Group 1: Political Landscape - The rise of far-right parties in Europe is reshaping the political landscape, with significant gains in countries like Germany, Portugal, and Romania, indicating a shift from traditional two-party systems to a more fragmented political environment [2][3][4] - In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has surged to become the second-largest party, reflecting a broader trend of increasing far-right influence across Europe [2] - Political fragmentation is leading to governance challenges, as seen in France where frequent changes in leadership have resulted in a governance crisis [3][4] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The European economy is facing a slowdown, with the EU's GDP growth forecast at 1.4% for 2025, while major economies like Germany and France are experiencing even lower growth rates of 0.3% and 0.9% respectively [5][6] - High public debt levels are a significant concern, with France's debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 117% and several EU countries exceeding their annual economic output in total debt [6] - The lack of innovation is identified as a critical issue, hindering productivity and competitiveness in key sectors, which is exacerbating the economic challenges faced by Europe [6] Group 3: Strategic Autonomy vs. Dependence on the US - There is a growing tension between Europe's desire for strategic autonomy and its increasing dependence on the US, highlighted by criticisms from US officials and the imposition of tariffs [7][9] - European nations are attempting to enhance their military capabilities and reduce reliance on US defense, with initiatives like the "Rearm Europe" plan aiming to bolster defense spending and production [7][8] - Despite efforts for autonomy, Europe remains heavily reliant on US military equipment and support, indicating a significant gap between strategic ambitions and practical realities [8]