沥青BU尾盘高位回落，短期多头交易委油制裁题材

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2996 with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3004 and a low of 2975, accumulating a 1.3% increase over the past week [2][32] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with near low and far high prices [2][32] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative change of 0% [2][34] - In East China, heavy asphalt is priced at 3090 CNY/ton, also unchanged, with a basis of 94 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7-day cumulative decrease of 93 CNY/ton [2][34] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -71 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 46 CNY/ton [2][34] - The main BU contract rose by 0.27%, while Brent increased by 0.2%, indicating a stable oil price influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela [2][34] Fundamental Changes - Venezuela's oil export issues remain a key risk, with sanctions causing oil to be stored on tankers. Chevron is allowed limited operations, but the majority of oil is supplied by PDVSA to China, which imports about 80% of Venezuela's crude [3][33] - Disruptions in Venezuelan supply could impact China's heavy oil and asphalt supply, potentially tightening regional availability and supporting asphalt prices [3][33] Inventory and Price Trends - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -14.03 USD/barrel as of December 23, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% week-over-week increase, indicating a slow destocking trend [4][34] Strategy - The current strategy suggests a wide-ranging single-sided fluctuation in asphalt prices [6][35]