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Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-24 23:56

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver prices have significantly increased this year due to three main factors: a persistent supply gap in the global silver market, concerns over physical supply due to U.S. tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle which enhances market liquidity and risk appetite [1] - In December, silver prices accelerated due to a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory, with global silver ETF holdings significantly increasing since October as institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchased and hoarded physical silver [1][2] - The current market structure shows a backwardation in silver futures, indicating extreme tightness in near-term physical supply, with silver leasing rates remaining high, reflecting low willingness to lend physical silver [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term volatility in the silver market is expected to remain high due to two key factors: the traditional delivery month of December and increased demand for both near and far-month contracts, which supports futures prices and amplifies market fluctuations [2] - The potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in early next year may lead to selling pressure from passive management funds, with expected impacts on silver being more pronounced than on gold due to the smaller market size [2] - In the medium term, silver prices are anchored to gold, with the overall upward trend in precious metals likely to continue amid a global rate-cutting cycle, although silver may experience greater short-term volatility compared to gold [3] Group 3 - Long-term, silver's industrial demand provides solid fundamental support for prices, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, AI computing, and 5G communications, with silver demand from the photovoltaic industry rising from approximately 20% of total demand in 2022 to about 55% currently [5] - It is suggested that traders consider silver as an enhanced allocation during gold's upward cycle, leveraging its high price elasticity and volatility for excess returns while managing positions to avoid being forced out due to short-term fluctuations [5]