供应充足预期影响下豆粕或继续偏弱震荡

Group 1 - The global trade friction and the adjustment of biodiesel policies in major producing countries are the two main themes affecting the oilseed market in 2025 [1] - The U.S. soybean export volume is expected to decline significantly, with a forecast of 44.5 million tons for 2025, a decrease of 13 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The share of U.S. soybean exports to China is projected to drop from 46.7% in 2024 to 18.7% in 2025, while exports to other regions are increasing [1] Group 2 - Brazil's soybean exports surged, with a total of over 100 million tons exported in the first ten months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.73% [2] - Argentina's soybean exports also saw significant growth, with a total of 9.2961 million tons exported in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 106.62% [2] - The majority of Argentina's soybean exports are directed to China, with 8.4592 million tons exported by the end of October, reflecting a 115.87% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - China's soybean imports increased despite halting purchases from the U.S. in September, with a cumulative import of 95.6686 million tons by the end of October, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% [3] - The market share of Brazilian soybeans in China rose from 71% to 74%, while U.S. soybeans' share decreased from 21% to 17% [3] Group 4 - COFCO Group has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans, acquiring 180,000 tons, but the short-term recovery of U.S. soybean exports to China is unlikely [4] - The initial agreement for a 12 million ton purchase of U.S. soybeans has seen only 2 million tons executed so far, with the remainder postponed to 2026 [4] - Predictions indicate that soybean supply will be ample in early 2026, which may keep soybean meal prices in a bearish trend [4]