平安夜，黄金涨穿关键价位，创新高！白银波动率达极值，多家机构提示风险

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 84.5% [3][13] - By March 2024, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 42.2%, with a 51.8% chance of no change, and a 6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3][13] Group 2: Ukraine Peace Plan - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20-point draft of the Ukraine-Russia "peace plan," emphasizing that it is still a draft subject to negotiation [4][14] - Key points include reaffirmation of Ukraine's sovereignty, establishment of a contact line monitoring mechanism, and strong security guarantees for Ukraine [4][14] - The plan aims to raise $800 billion for economic recovery, reconstruction, and humanitarian needs, and includes provisions for Ukraine's EU membership and a free trade agreement with the U.S. [4][14][15] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,525.77 per ounce before closing at $4,479.42, while COMEX gold futures peaked at $4,555.10 [6][16] - Silver prices also surged, with spot silver hitting $72.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures reaching $72.75 [6][17] - The volatility of silver has reached historical extremes, prompting multiple institutions to issue risk warnings [7][10] Group 4: Investment Fund and Market Risks - The Guotou Silver LOF fund announced a temporary suspension after a 103% increase in December, with a premium rate of 68.19% [8][18] - The fund's management cautioned investors about the risks associated with high premium rates, including valuation regression and net asset value decline [9][19] - Analysts highlighted the need for caution as the current silver market shows signs of overbuying, with volatility indices at historical highs [10][20] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trading Environment - The domestic precious metals market has shown stronger performance compared to overseas markets, attracting funds during the holiday season when foreign markets are less active [11][21] - Regulatory measures have been implemented by various exchanges to maintain market stability and manage risks associated with the recent price surges [22]