中信证券：2025年以来A股走出“哑铃”格局 成长兑现是其基本面基础

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the A-share market has entered a sustained "dumbbell" pattern, with the recovery of growth in hard technology sectors represented by the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext as the fundamental basis for this trend [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "dumbbell" pattern formed and strengthened from 2022 to 2024 due to weakened fundamentals and low risk appetite, reflecting a lack of growth in typical growth sectors [2] - Since 2025, market funds have shifted preferences from micro-cap and dividend strategies to technology growth sectors [2] - The core hard technology sectors represented by the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext have seen a recovery in growth, which is fundamental to the A-share market's transition out of the "dumbbell" pattern [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Growth is the basis for the resilience of most industries' performance after October, with a notable differentiation in market valuations [3] - After August 2025, market valuations have become more differentiated, with a new high reached after a short-term fluctuation in October [3] - Some industries have maintained their upward trends post-October, with most of these industries sustaining high growth rates from 2025 to Q3 [3] Group 3: Investment Highlights - The dual innovation and technology sectors have high expected profitability, with a recommendation to monitor the realization of profits in 2026; the difference between expected ROE and TTM ROE is over 5%, with the power equipment and new energy sectors showing an 8.18% difference [4] - The defense and military industry has room for profit improvement compared to other industries with similar PB valuations; as of early December, the average PB for this sector was 3.70, with a TTM ROE of 3.70% [4] - The valuation differences between the food and beverage and home appliance industries are significant, with a potential convergence in valuations over the long term; both sectors have realized and expected ROE around 20%, but the average PB for food and beverage is 4.08, while for home appliances it is 2.40 [4] - The broad market shows stability in overall profitability and valuation amid the transition of growth drivers, indicating investment value; the dual innovation and technology sectors have increased their share in the top ten industries of the CSI 300 and SSE 50 [4]