豆粕偏弱震荡

Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The global oilseed market is significantly influenced by trade tensions and biodiesel policy adjustments in major producing countries, particularly between the US and China [1] - The US soybean export forecast for 2025 is 44.5 million tons, accounting for 38% of total production, which is a 13 percentage point decrease from 2024 [2] - Brazil and Argentina are expected to become the core suppliers of soybeans to China, with Brazil's exports to China reaching 80.9 million tons, surpassing the previous year's total [2][3] Group 2: Export Trends - Argentina's soybean exports have seen a substantial increase, with a total of 9.3 million tons exported in the first ten months of the year, marking a 106.62% year-on-year growth [3] - China's soybean imports have increased despite halting purchases from the US, with total imports reaching 95.7 million tons, a 6.37% increase year-on-year [3] - The share of Brazilian soybeans in China's imports has risen from 71% to 74%, while the share of US soybeans has decreased from 21% to 17% [3] Group 3: Domestic Market Adjustments - COFCO Group has resumed purchasing US soybeans, acquiring 180,000 tons, but the overall demand for US soybeans remains weak [4] - The supply of soybeans is expected to be ample, with predictions indicating that soybean supply in January 2026 will reach 12.5 million tons, matching the supply levels of 2025 [4][5] - The soybean meal market is anticipated to remain in a bearish cycle due to the expected ample supply, with weak fluctuations projected for the entire year [5]