美国失业担忧渐升，家庭债务创纪录，美联储如何应对

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is experiencing a "no firing, no hiring" trend as 2025 approaches, with job stability becoming a major concern for workers [1][3] - According to a Mercer survey, job stability is now the second biggest concern for U.S. workers, following the ability to pay monthly living expenses, reflecting a disconnect between individual perceptions and macroeconomic data [3][4] - The U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3, yet many Americans feel economic pressure due to high inflation and rising living costs, leading to increased anxiety about job security [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, with new job creation concentrated in the healthcare sector [4] - A Michigan University consumer confidence survey indicated that 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise next year, contributing to a nearly 30% decline in consumer confidence compared to the previous year [5][6] - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [7][8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to only lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for indebted Americans [7] - The household debt report shows that mortgage balances account for the largest share of debt at $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion and auto loans at $1.66 trillion [7][8] - The credit market is exhibiting "K-shaped" economic divergence, where high-income groups benefit from a booming stock market, while low-income families face financial pressures [8]