光大期货：12月25日金融日报

Market Overview - The market showed a strong upward trend with all three major indices rising, and over 4100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets gaining, with a total transaction volume exceeding 1.89 trillion [2][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.77% [2][7] - The stock index futures market has been fluctuating around the lower end of the range since October, with limited differentiation between large and small-cap indices and frequent rotation among sectors [2][7] Policy Insights - The recent political bureau meeting and the central economic work conference are expected to enhance the impact of policies on the market in the short term [2][7] - The meetings emphasized achieving a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an expected GDP growth target of 5% for next year remaining unchanged [2][7] - Policy focus will continue on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new productivity" [2][7] - The meetings highlighted the need to combine investments in physical assets and human capital, indicating that boosting residents' income and consumption capacity is crucial for macro inflation expectations [2][7] - It was also emphasized to maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure, suggesting a slight increase in the scale of fiscal and monetary policy efforts next year compared to this year [2][7] Monetary Policy - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy next year, flexibly using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3][9] - The central bank conducted a 260 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate [3][9] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and DR007 decreased to 1.2622% and 1.38%, respectively, indicating a continued loose funding environment [3][9] - The overall economy remains resilient, and with rising prices, the central bank's approach to interest rate cuts is expected to be cautious [3][9] Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced volatility, with silver slightly rising by 0.68% to $71.939 per ounce, while palladium fell significantly by 7.28% to $1821 per ounce, and platinum decreased by 2.03% to $2272.9 per ounce [4][10] - The gold-silver ratio dropped to 62.3, and the platinum-palladium price spread increased to $524 per ounce [4][10] - The U.S. labor market remains stable, with initial jobless claims falling to 214,000, indicating no significant pressure [4][10] - Recent market conditions suggest overheating in the precious metals sector, and investors are advised to be cautious, particularly regarding domestic platinum and palladium futures [4][10]