“户用非自然人”分布式光伏暂免竞价政策探析

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in Shandong's policy regarding "household non-natural person distributed photovoltaic projects" not being included in the "mechanism electricity" bidding range from 2027 is a strategic recalibration aimed at optimizing the safety, efficiency, and structure of the new power system [1][2]. Policy Adjustment - Shandong's announcement to exclude "household non-natural person distributed photovoltaic projects" from the mechanism electricity bidding is a significant step in the province's market-oriented reform of renewable energy pricing [2]. - This adjustment aligns with the national directive for deepening market-oriented reforms in renewable energy pricing, promoting a shift from policy-driven to market-driven pricing mechanisms [2][5]. Industry Scale and Structure - As the largest province for photovoltaic installations in China, Shandong has a cumulative installed capacity of 91.184 million kilowatts, with distributed photovoltaic stations accounting for 65% of this capacity [3]. - The rapid growth in household photovoltaic installations, reaching 28.782 million kilowatts, is attributed to abundant rooftop resources and strong demand for green energy, supported by favorable policies [3]. Market Dynamics and Revenue Models - The exit of household non-natural person projects from the mechanism electricity bidding will lead to their full entry into the electricity spot market, significantly altering revenue logic [4]. - The spot market in Shandong exhibits distinct price fluctuations, with low prices during peak photovoltaic output hours and high prices during morning and evening peaks, creating a challenge for projects reliant on fixed pricing [4][5]. Transition to Self-Consumption - The policy shift encourages non-natural person investment entities to adopt self-consumption models, enhancing their revenue stability and optimizing grid economics [5][6]. - The emphasis on self-consumption aligns with the core value of distributed photovoltaic systems, which are designed to minimize transmission losses and reduce reliance on the main grid [6]. Impacts on Industry Development - The transition to self-consumption models is expected to foster high-quality development in Shandong's photovoltaic industry, reducing pressure on the public grid and lowering operational costs [7]. - This shift will prompt photovoltaic companies to focus on quality over quantity, enhancing competitiveness through better project selection and operational efficiency [7]. - The long-term effects of this policy adjustment are anticipated to create a virtuous cycle of reasonable growth in installations, efficient consumption, and stable revenues, contributing to the integration of distributed photovoltaics into the new power system [7].