PTA：下游负反馈凸显 PTA短期继续上行空间受限

Market Overview - On December 24, PTA futures experienced a slight increase, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a slight weakening of the spot basis. The December contract was traded at a discount of 19, with prices ranging from 4975 to 5060 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 221 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601, TA2603, and TA2605 were 315, 292, and 327 yuan/ton respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of December 19, the production load of the 1.25 million ton PTA unit operated by INEOS was reduced, with a potential shutdown in the future, resulting in a PTA load of 73.2%, a decrease of 0.5% [1] - Demand: As of December 19, the polyester load slightly decreased to 91.1%, down by 0.1%. On December 24, the price of polyester filament adjusted locally, with overall production and sales remaining weak. Recent raw material price increases exceeded expectations, leading to increased downstream replenishment last Thursday and Friday, resulting in a slight increase in production and sales. However, the rapid reduction in downstream production loads indicates that it will take time to digest social inventory, which may shift inventory pressure back to factories in the near future [1] Market Outlook - With the significant rise in raw material PX prices, PTA and polyester product prices have also increased. Currently, there is not much supply-demand pressure on PTA, as maintenance of PTA units was concentrated in November and December, and polyester operating rates remain high due to domestic and international demand support. Additionally, the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to increase PTA export prospects, leading to a tighter supply-demand pattern in November and December, with PTA processing fees recovering [1] - In terms of absolute prices, PTA is expected to face maintenance of units in the first quarter under low processing fees, while seasonal reductions in polyester production before and after the Spring Festival may lead to inventory accumulation expectations for PTA in the first quarter. Furthermore, some major polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, limiting the upward momentum for PTA prices. The strategy suggests a cautious view on current prices following the rise in PX, with recommendations to reduce positions on highs and a mid-term bullish outlook [1]