世界经济的韧性与底气

Core Insights - The global economy in 2025 demonstrated impressive resilience amidst multiple shocks, characterized by enhanced risk prevention, self-correction capabilities, and increased policy predictability [3][4] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to be the main contributors to global growth in 2025, with a projected global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026 [3][6] - China is positioned as a "stabilizing anchor" for the world economy, showcasing strong resilience and vitality despite external challenges [2][11] Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - The world economy exhibited remarkable resilience in 2025, with a moderate growth rate driven by emerging markets and developing economies [3][6] - The OECD projected global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026, supported by expansionary macro policies and positive expectations for new technologies [3][6] - The IMF noted a resilient start to 2025, although signs of a gradual slowdown in growth were emerging as supportive factors began to fade [3][5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Resilience - Key reasons for the resilience of the global economy include China's resistance to U.S. tariffs, the elasticity of global supply chains, and proactive fiscal and monetary policies from multiple countries [5][10] - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on trade and investment is significant, contributing to the overall economic dynamism [5][10] - The global economy is facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and trade policies, yet the anticipated recession has not materialized, leading to better-than-expected economic performance [5][6] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The global economy is expected to experience a stable transition in 2026, with growth projected at 2.8%, supported by loose monetary policies and stabilizing global trade [7][8] - Experts agree that the growth rate will stabilize between 3.1% and 3.2%, with a focus on structural adjustments rather than cyclical recovery [8][10] - The transition will be influenced by technological advancements and free trade, with AI posing both opportunities and uncertainties for productivity and employment [8][10] Group 4: China's Role in Global Economy - China is anticipated to play a crucial role in global economic growth, providing supply, demand, technology transfer, and support for sustainable development [11][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-level openness and a commitment to global economic growth, reflecting China's responsibility in the global economy [12][14] - China's focus on quality economic growth, particularly in high-tech manufacturing and green development, is expected to dominate its export landscape [14]