智通财经网·2025-12-25 02:37Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains Alibaba Group's earnings forecast and buy rating, projecting revenues for FY2026-FY2028 at 1,038.6 billion, 1,143.4 billion, and 1,250.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 101.9 billion, 145.5 billion, and 183.6 billion RMB respectively. The SOTP valuation method yields a target valuation of 3,412.4 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 203 USD per ADS, indicating a 34% upside potential, and a target price of 197 HKD per share, also reflecting a 34% upside potential [1]. Group 1 - AI cloud growth is expected to continue, driven by improved Capex and accelerating cloud revenue trends, with domestic AI cloud fundamentals remaining positive for the coming year. Alibaba is noted for its comprehensive self-developed technology stack in cloud computing, which includes chips, servers, operating systems, and large models, positioning it among the top tier in terms of revenue scale, growth rate, and profit margins in China [2]. - The competition from ByteDance's Volcano Engine focuses on the MaaS layer, but Alibaba Cloud's advantages in full-stack solutions and ecosystem integrity are difficult to replicate in the short term. Alibaba Cloud's leadership in the broader AIIaaS and overall cloud market is supported by the demand for enterprise-wide intelligent transformation [3]. Group 2 - The domestic AI chip market is experiencing a surge in demand for localized computing power, with Alibaba's T-head chips achieving performance levels comparable to international standards and winning bids for large intelligent computing center projects. This development is crucial for Alibaba Cloud to provide differentiated computing services and enhance profit margins [4]. - Alibaba is positioning itself to capture the C-end entry point, potentially unlocking monetization opportunities. The company is enhancing its AI capabilities to transition from graphical user interfaces to natural language interfaces, integrating its ecosystem through products like the Quark AI glasses, which aim to create a seamless connection between various services [5].