展望美股2026：年线三连阳后，三大关键因素决定牛市能否延续

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has achieved double-digit percentage gains for three consecutive years, but achieving a fourth year of strong returns in 2026 may be challenging due to the need for robust corporate earnings, a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, and significant investments in artificial intelligence [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market has been in a bull market since October 2022, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, interest rate cuts, and economic growth amid recession fears [1]. - The S&P 500 index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 17% for 2025, following gains of 23% and 24% in 2024 and 2023, respectively [1]. - CFRA's Chief Investment Strategist, Sam Stovall, suggests that for 2026, the S&P 500 index target is set at 7400 points, indicating a potential increase of about 7% from current levels [5]. Group 2: Earnings Growth and Sector Performance - Optimism exists regarding U.S. corporate earnings, with projections indicating that S&P 500 companies' earnings are expected to grow by over 15% in 2026, following a 13% growth in 2025 [6]. - The growth in earnings is anticipated to be driven by a broader range of companies, supported by fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, rather than being limited to a few tech giants [6]. - The "seven tech giants," including Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, are expected to see a profit growth rate of 37% in 2024, which is projected to decrease to 23% by 2026, while other S&P 500 companies are expected to grow at 13% [6]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Federal Reserve Influence - A key factor for strong stock market performance is the economic condition that is weak enough to suppress inflation and encourage further interest rate cuts, but not so weak as to lead to a recession [10]. - Investors expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance, with predictions of at least two more rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [10]. - The upcoming selection of the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is viewed as a potential signal for a more dovish Fed, although concerns about the Fed's independence persist [10]. Group 4: Historical Context and Uncertainties - Historical data shows mixed potential returns for 2026, with an average gain of 12.8% in the fourth year of bull markets since 1950, although midterm election years typically see lower average gains of 3.8% for the S&P 500 [11]. - The relationship between the U.S. and China could significantly impact the stock market in 2026, with potential breakthroughs that may not be currently factored into expectations [11].