英镑突破1.35关口年内涨幅超8% 英央行降息分歧成核心支撑

Core Viewpoint - The British pound continues its strong performance against the US dollar, driven by the Bank of England's cautious monetary policy and a weakening US dollar, with a year-to-date increase of over 8% [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Bank of England announced its fourth interest rate cut of the year on December 18, reducing the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, totaling a 100 basis point reduction for 2025 [1]. - There was significant division within the Monetary Policy Committee, with only 5 out of 9 members supporting the rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to monetary easing [1][2]. - The recent inflation data shows a decline, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.2% year-on-year in November, the lowest level in eight months, providing room for the Bank of England to lower rates [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Bank of England has revised its GDP forecast for Q4 2025 from a growth of 0.3% to a stagnation outlook, highlighting concerns over weak demand and low consumer confidence [2]. - Despite economic concerns, the relative strength of the UK economy compared to the US, which is facing recovery challenges and rising unemployment, supports the pound's performance [2]. Group 3: External Factors - The US dollar index has been weak, dropping over 9% year-to-date and reaching a two-month low, which has provided upward momentum for the British pound [3]. - The technical outlook for the pound against the dollar has shifted to a bullish trend after breaking the 1.35 resistance level, with potential for further gains if it maintains this level [3]. Group 4: Future Focus - Market attention will be on UK inflation data and economic recovery signals, which will influence the Bank of England's policy adjustments [3]. - The monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve and US economic performance will also impact the pound-dollar exchange rate indirectly [3].