震荡回升！加元站稳1.3670 降息分歧油价成关键博弈点

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, currently at 1.3670, influenced by central bank policy divergences and economic data fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown resilience, stabilizing above 1.3670 after a high of 1.3944 in September, reflecting strong market dynamics despite fluctuations in oil prices and policy expectations [1]. - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% on December 10, indicating a resilient economy despite challenges from U.S. tariffs, with future policy adjustments dependent on inflation and economic data [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, up from 1.9% in August, driven by narrowing gasoline price declines and rising food prices, with core CPI at 2.6% [2]. - The Canadian economy is characterized by a mix of resilience and pressure, with a strong GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, but expected weakness in Q4 due to declining net exports and uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [2]. Group 3: Commodity Influence and Market Sentiment - The structural weakening of the U.S. dollar index, which has fallen over 9% this year, is countered by the weakening commodity attributes of the Canadian dollar, limiting the upward movement of USD/CAD [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a clear short-term oscillation pattern for USD/CAD, with key support levels at 1.3321 and 1.3265, and resistance levels at 1.3383 and 1.3480, with potential volatility due to holiday liquidity constraints and economic data releases [3].