瑞郎承压走低政策分化主导走势

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate continues to weaken, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside deflationary pressures in Switzerland and the broad weakness of the USD [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has completed its third rate cut of 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year, diminishing the attractiveness of the USD [1]. - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0% for the second consecutive time, indicating a high threshold for returning to negative interest rates, which supports the CHF [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Switzerland's economy shows resilience despite a contraction in GDP due to a decline in pharmaceutical exports, with moderate growth in manufacturing and services offsetting this decline [2]. - The signing of a trade agreement between the US and Switzerland has significantly reduced tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, alleviating concerns about Swiss exports and providing additional support for the CHF [2]. Group 3: USD Performance - Despite a strong annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3% in the US for Q3, the USD remains broadly weak, with the USD index falling to a three-month low of 97.75 [3]. - The labor market's signs of weakness, highlighted by Fed Chair Powell, reinforce expectations for continued monetary easing, impacting the USD's performance [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical indicators present mixed signals, with the RSI entering oversold territory at 22.79, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, while the MACD indicates prevailing bearish momentum [3]. - The USD/CHF has broken below the key support level of 0.79, with short-term fluctuations expected between 0.79 and 0.80, and critical support at 0.7870 [3]. Group 5: Institutional Outlook - Institutions have differing views on the future of the USD/CHF exchange rate, with Standard Chartered suggesting a potential short-term technical rebound, while UBS Wealth Management emphasizes a long-term bearish trend for the USD [4].