货币政策下一步如何干？重要会议释放信号！

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and stabilize growth, aligning with the central economic work conference's guidelines for 2026 [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, utilizing various monetary policy tools to support the real economy [1][2]. - From January to November, a total of 15.4 trillion yuan (approximately 2.3 trillion USD) in credit was issued, with a growth rate of 6.4% [2]. - The focus will be on supporting key strategic areas and improving the quality of financial supply for green transformation and technological independence [2][3]. Economic Signals and Market Outlook - Recent economic indicators show positive trends, with the manufacturing activity expectation index at 52.8% in October, indicating a recovery in business confidence [3]. - The government has allocated 500 billion yuan (approximately 76 billion USD) in new local special bond quotas for 2026, with total project investments around 7 trillion yuan (approximately 1 trillion USD) [3]. Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial for economic stability and transformation, with both policies working in tandem to support growth [6][7]. - The issuance of special government bonds and the PBOC's liquidity support have stabilized market expectations and provided funding for major projects [7]. - The integration of fiscal tools with monetary policy, such as interest subsidies and guarantees, has enhanced the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [6][8]. Future Directions - Experts anticipate that the PBOC will continue to use various liquidity tools to inject short- and medium-term liquidity into the market, maintaining a supportive stance [3]. - There is a call for innovation in policy tools to further enhance the synergy between fiscal spending and credit allocation, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises and technological innovation [8].