【季度分析】动力煤：四季度煤价先涨后降，明年一季度或底部徘徊

Group 1 - The coal market in Q4 2025 is expected to experience a tightening supply-demand balance initially, followed by a shift to a more relaxed state, with domestic thermal coal prices showing a trend of rising first and then facing downward pressure [3][17] - The highest price point for thermal coal in 2025 was recorded in late November, reaching 680-700 CNY/ton, while the lowest was in early October at 580-590 CNY/ton, resulting in a price fluctuation of 17.95% [3][19] - By December 23, the mainstream pit price for Q6000 thermal coal in the Yulin region was between 595-610 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase from the end of Q3 [3][19] Group 2 - The coal production from January to November 2025 was 4.4 billion tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, with a notable decline of 2.3% in October due to various production constraints [5][19] - The coal inventory at the three northern ports (Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, and Jingtang) has been accumulating and is nearing historical highs, with a total of 29.75 million tons as of December 23, 2025 [7][21] - The price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 705 CNY/ton as of December 23, down 125 CNY/ton from the year's highest price [7][21] Group 3 - The demand for imported coal remains high, with November 2025 imports reaching 44.05 million tons, the second-highest level of the year, driven by increased consumption during the winter peak and the price advantage of imported coal over domestic alternatives [9][10][23] - The demand side showed strong support for the market until mid-November, but this support weakened significantly afterward due to high prices and a lack of expected cold weather, leading to increased inventory levels at power plants [12][25] - The overall market for thermal coal in Q1 2026 is anticipated to hover at the bottom after a period of decline, with production stabilizing post-New Year and potential seasonal demand fluctuations [14][27]