仔猪销售持续亏损，春节后涨幅或扩大

Core Viewpoint - The price of piglets is expected to rise after the Spring Festival due to increased demand for restocking, despite current low prices and ongoing losses in the breeding sector [2][14]. Price Trends - In the fourth quarter, the average price of 7 kg piglets dropped from 220.17 CNY per head on September 30 to 165.67 CNY per head on October 17, marking a 69.92% decline from the peak of 550.83 CNY per head on April 4 [15]. - By late December, the average price rebounded to 216.92 CNY per head, but remained significantly lower than the previous year [15][19]. - The price touched a low of 290.00 CNY per head in October 2024 before rebounding, with prices mostly above 300 CNY per head in the fourth quarter [17]. Sales and Profitability - The sales of piglets have been consistently unprofitable, with an average loss of 75.98 CNY per head in the fourth quarter, which improved slightly to 58.08 CNY per head by December 22 [19]. - The breeding sector is cautious about restocking due to low price expectations post-Spring Festival and increased disease occurrences, particularly in northern regions [18][21]. Future Outlook - The demand for restocking is anticipated to increase significantly after the Spring Festival, with expectations that prices could rise to over 300 CNY per head by late February [24]. - The seasonal characteristics suggest a potential price peak of 360-400 CNY per head in the first half of 2026, driven by limited supply and increased restocking intentions [24].