腌腊季 + 双节临近，猪肉价格却创近年新低，原因找到了

Core Insights - The demand for pork is increasing as the Southern region enters the curing season, with traditional consumption peaks during New Year and Spring Festival, yet pork prices remain low [1] - The average price of live pigs is between 5.5 to 6 yuan per jin, which is below the cost line, while prices for other meats and vegetables are rising [1] - The wholesale price of pork has decreased by 23.7% year-on-year, contrasting with price increases for beef, lamb, chicken, and vegetables [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The warm winter in the Southern region has led to a dispersed demand for cured and sausage products, and the late timing of the Spring Festival has further spread out the demand for pork [1] - High levels of breeding sows from last year's fourth quarter have resulted in an abundant supply of market pigs, particularly during the fourth quarter, leading to a low price fluctuation for pork [1] Market Dynamics - Many small-scale pig farmers are exiting the market, with reports indicating a significant reduction in the number of small pig farms [1] - Despite the exit of small farmers, the代养 (substitute breeding) model is gaining popularity, allowing farmers to raise pigs for large enterprises without market risk [1][2] - The代养 model is leading to increased production capacity and output of pigs, which is affecting pork price trends [2] Industry Trends - Large breeding companies are aggressively expanding into new markets, increasing competition among pig farmers [2] - The scale of代养 operations is growing, with higher entry requirements for farmers, indicating a shift towards larger operations [2] - Industry experts suggest that cost control is essential for farmers to navigate the current downturn in pork prices, with production costs varying significantly among different farms [2]