外汇市场成交量整体下降 人民币汇率创年内新高

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In November, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market decreased to $191.46 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2.57% and a month-on-month decline of 6.69% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $146.23 billion, down 5.11% year-on-year [1] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened, breaking through the 7.12 to 7.08 levels, reaching a year-to-date high of 7.0794 by the end of November [1][3] Group 2: USD Index and Interest Rate Expectations - The USD index experienced fluctuations, initially maintaining a narrow range due to cautious Fed rate cut expectations, but later fell to 99.45 by the end of November, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous month [2] - The market's risk aversion increased mid-month, leading to a temporary rise in the USD index above 100 points, but it subsequently declined as Fed officials indicated support for rate cuts [2][3] Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate showed a strong upward trend, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.0794, appreciating 0.48% from the previous month, while the offshore RMB was at 7.0754, appreciating 0.58% [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 97.92, reflecting a 0.32% appreciation from the previous month [3] Group 4: Derivatives Market Activity - In November, the average daily trading volume of RMB foreign exchange options was $5.44 billion, an increase of 3.93% month-on-month [4] - The implied volatility of RMB to USD options showed a downward trend initially, followed by an increase, indicating a rise in short-term appreciation expectations for the RMB [4] Group 5: Swap Market Trends - The one-year swap points decreased by 9 basis points to -1296 basis points by the end of November, influenced by market supply and demand factors [5] - The spread between onshore and offshore one-year swap points narrowed to around 50 basis points, the lowest in three months [6] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Conditions - Domestic dollar liquidity tightened slightly in November, while offshore dollar liquidity remained tight, with the SOFR rate fluctuating between 3.91% and 4.12% [7] - The overnight dollar borrowing rate in the domestic market rose to 3.87% by the end of November, reflecting a tightening trend [7] Group 7: Market Sentiment - The sentiment index for dollar borrowing funds showed increased volatility, rising from 54 points to 57 points in the first half of the month, before falling back to 46 points by the end of November [8]