人民币汇率，破7

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar has reached a 15-month high, breaking the 7.0 yuan mark, driven by various factors including reduced external pressures, enhanced internal resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 25, the offshore RMB was reported at 6.9999 yuan per US dollar, up 77 basis points from the previous close, with an intraday high of 6.9981 yuan [1]. - The onshore RMB was reported at 7.0073 yuan per US dollar, increasing by 88 basis points from the previous close, with an intraday high of 7.0061 yuan [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent RMB appreciation is primarily driven by a changing dollar environment, with expectations of continued Fed rate cuts suppressing the dollar's long-term outlook, thus providing room for RMB appreciation [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Expert Opinions - Experts predict that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a moderate appreciation trend towards 2026, influenced by a weaker dollar index and stable monetary policy from the central bank [6]. - The core variables affecting the exchange rate in 2026 are expected to be the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a potential for the RMB to continue appreciating moderately due to narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. - The analysis indicates that the decoupling of the RMB exchange rate from the dollar index may become a norm, supported by both fundamental and policy factors [3].