股市“四辩”︱2026年重阳投资策略报告

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to rebound strongly in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, while the market structure remains highly differentiated. The outlook for 2026 involves identifying new opportunities through various debates [1][30]. Future Debate - China is unlikely to follow Japan's path of economic stagnation, primarily due to its superior innovation capabilities and irreplaceability in the global market. The market perception has shifted from being "uninvestable" to having "strategic allocation value" [5][9][10]. Allocation Debate - The incremental funds for the stock market are derived from asset reallocation by residents and financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment. The real estate market has transitioned from being a source of capital diversion to a driving force for the stock market, marking a historical first [11][40]. - High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are the main drivers of this asset reallocation, which is characterized by a rational and gradual approach rather than a speculative rush [12][41]. Current Debate - The expectations for AI capital expenditure are high, as AI is seen as a significant technological revolution. However, the industry faces challenges in reconciling high profit margins with the need for substantial capital investment, which may impact the pace of capital expenditure [17][23]. Strategy Debate - The market outlook for 2026 remains positive, but investors should temper their return expectations. The strategy focuses on defensive counterattacks and seeking alpha opportunities in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, while also exploring contrarian investments in consumer, military, and real estate sectors [24][32][26].