华源证券：食品饮料板块复苏分化 关注ROA企稳与结构性景气赛道

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates a recovery sequence in the food and beverage industry, with soft drinks and snacks leading the recovery, followed by the catering supply chain, condiments, dairy products, beer, and finally, liquor [1][2]. Group 1: Recovery Sequence Analysis - The recovery rhythm of different consumption sectors shows both differences and commonalities, driven by industry supply-demand dynamics and supply chain structures [2]. - The commonality lies in the prevailing competition in the existing market, where companies focus on increasing sales to digest capacity and enhance operational efficiency [2]. - ROA (Return on Assets) is identified as a leading indicator for the operational recovery of consumer enterprises, with a detailed analysis of the stages of enterprise and channel adjustments [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Insights - An analysis of Japan's consumption differentiation in the 1990s reveals that industries that can capture structural opportunities typically meet two conditions: addressing demand pain points and having low penetration rates [3]. - The rapid development of cost-effective options and health-oriented niche categories in Japan during that period illustrates the potential for growth in low-penetration sectors [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - From a pricing perspective, rising CPI may lead to valuation recovery in traditional industries with higher penetration rates, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, which are expected to attract incremental capital [4]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in these sectors, such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yili Group [4]. - From a volume perspective, companies with high supply chain efficiency in cost-effective consumption are likely to see volume growth, with specific recommendations for companies in the catering supply chain and soft drinks [4].