Sugar Prices See Support on Safras Forecasts for 2026/27

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.25 (+1.67%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +6.00 (+1.41%) [1] - Sugar prices are supported by a forecast from Safras & Mercado predicting a -3.91% decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26 [1] Group 2: India Sugar Production and Exports - India's food secretary indicated that the government may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a previous allowance of 1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season [2] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15 increased by +28% year-on-year to 7.83 MMT [3] Group 3: Brazil Sugar Production Outlook - Conab raised Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [4] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November for the 2025-26 season rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT [4] - The proportion of cane crushed for sugar increased to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [4] Group 4: Global Sugar Surplus Forecast - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25 [5] - ISO projects a +3.2% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [5] - Czarnikow increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate of 7.5 MMT [5]