长江有色：海外休市避险资金集体撤退及镍高库存施压 25日镍价或下跌

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance and high inventory pressure, leading to price fluctuations and a bearish outlook for nickel prices in the short term [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nickel futures in London closed at $15,660 per ton, up $20 per ton, with a trading volume of 16,136 contracts, while domestic Shanghai nickel futures showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 125,100 yuan per ton, down 1.47% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported nickel inventory at 255,696 tons, an increase of 1,092 tons from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai nickel futures market opened higher but experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to 124,010 yuan per ton, down 2,950 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core logic of the nickel market revolves around supply-demand imbalance and high inventory pressure, with Indonesia being a key supplier, providing substantial forward capacity expectations despite potential production variability [2]. - The continuous release of new hydrometallurgical capacity is pushing the industry's cost curve down, increasing competitive pressure on the supply side [2]. - Demand challenges are evident, particularly in the traditional stainless steel sector, which is struggling due to the real estate cycle, while the shift towards lithium iron phosphate in new energy batteries has significantly weakened the growth expectations for nickel demand [2]. Group 3: Price Forecast - In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain weak, driven by reduced positions in the market, with supply tightening expectations due to Indonesian policy adjustments being a core driver [3]. - High inventory levels and weak demand are constraining upward price movements, indicating a bearish outlook for nickel prices [3]. - Future observations will focus on whether capacity control policies in major production areas can effectively alleviate supply pressures and if new growth points in demand, such as in the new energy sector, can emerge [3].