长江有色：铅价强势产业供需紧平衡 25日铅价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing upward price momentum driven by macroeconomic support and structural supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The London lead futures market saw a rise, closing at $1999.5 per ton, up $16.5, with a trading volume of 3806 contracts [1]. - The domestic Shanghai lead futures market also showed strong performance, with the main contract closing at 17275 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.82% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained due to environmental regulations affecting raw material procurement and production cuts at some smelters, leading to a significant reduction in supply [1][2]. - Demand is supported by seasonal factors, particularly in the automotive battery replacement and production peak, which provides a solid foundation for lead consumption [1][2]. - The current market is characterized by a "supply reduction and demand increase" scenario, which is validated by declining social inventory levels [1]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The strong price trend is expected to continue due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand, but upward price potential may face challenges from supply recovery and the impact of high prices on downstream consumption [2]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor policy changes and inventory fluctuations as market volatility may increase [2].