长江有色：圣诞节美股休市投机资金获利了结 25日锡价或下跌

Core Viewpoint - The current tin market is experiencing a phase of rebalancing, with supply conditions easing and demand showing structural divergence, leading to a cautious market atmosphere [1][2]. Supply and Demand Status - The supply side is showing marginal easing, with major exporting countries adjusting policies that have led to a rapid increase in export volumes, alleviating previous supply anxieties caused by regional disruptions [2] - Despite some operational uncertainties in individual mining areas, the overall tight supply situation has significantly eased [2] - Demand in traditional sectors, such as consumer electronics, remains weak, while emerging applications like photovoltaic junction boxes and automotive electronics are growing, but their share in total consumption is insufficient to offset declines in traditional sectors [2] - The industry chain is characterized by a cautious atmosphere, with downstream players primarily purchasing based on demand, and high prices suppressing replenishment intentions [2] Price Trend Prediction - The core driver of tin prices has shifted from "supply concerns" to "real demand verification," with global visible inventories accumulating from historically low levels, providing some support to prices [3] - Short-term price movements are expected to be range-bound, with downward pressure on the central operating point [3] - Future directional breakthroughs will depend on the clarity of export policies from major producing countries and whether new energy demand can exhibit unexpectedly strong growth to reshape supply-demand expectations [3] - Market volatility may primarily stem from the anticipated difference between the pace of actual supply recovery and demand resilience, with expectations of a potential decline in tin prices today [3]